Dorking and Horley - what the polls are saying

16 Jun 2024
Bar chart of latest New Statesman poll forecast

The experts are agreed – if you want to ensure the Conservatives don’t win here in Dorking and Horley, you should vote for Chris Coghlan - the Liberal Democrat candidate.

Tactical Voting

All the four main tactical-voting web-sites agree:

What do the pollsters say

Peter Inglesby aggregates predictions from different pollsters for the General Election

Data is taken from:

All but the Economist predict a Lib Dem win; the Economist predicts that the Tories will hold the seat.

Note that The Economist methodology does not take account of the effects of parties’ campaigns in individual constituencies nor of tactical voting, so its methodology would have failed to pick up local election gains in 2023 and 2024 for the Lib Dems in both Mole Valley and Horley.

What about the gambling markets?

According to, the Lib Dems are 2/1 on favourites to win Dorking and Horley whilst the Conservatives are 7/4 against and Labour are 10/1 against.

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